Reduced models for a stochastic multilayer SIR model including households and workplaces
Madeleine Kubasch  1, 2@  
1 : Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique
Ecole Polytechnique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR7641
2 : Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées du Génome à l'Environnement [Jouy-En-Josas]
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

We study a stochastic SIR model with two levels of mixing, namely a global level which is uniformly mixing, and a local level with two layers representing household and workplace contacts, respectively. First, we illustrate through simulations that a well calibrated, uniformly mixing SIR model yields a satisfying approximation of epidemic key characteristics. Second, we establish the large population convergence of the corresponding stochastic process. Convergence to the unique deterministic solution of a measure-valued equation is obtained. In the particular case of exponentially distributed infectious periods, we show that it is possible to further reduce the obtained deterministic limit, leading to a finite dimensional dynamical system capturing the epidemic dynamics. 


Personnes connectées : 2 Vie privée
Chargement...